AGP Executive Report

Drug Prosecution: Paraguay’s Prosecutor’s Office has indicted Gianina García Troche, tied to alleged Marset cartel operations, detailing a route from Bolivia through Paraguay’s Chaco using nearly 1,000 clandestine flights and pointing to cocaine volumes seized in Belgium and the Netherlands. World Cup Focus: Group D is shaping up as a tight, unpredictable race, with Paraguay expected to lean on structure and counters as the U.S. leans on home support and Australia/Türkiye chase knockout hopes. Payments & Property: Paraguay saw a 24% jump in digital payments in early 2026, while Asunción’s real estate approvals are driving a construction boom along major corridors. Industry Push: Construction has started on Paraguay’s first pulp mill, a US$1.5B bet on forestry-linked industrial growth. Security Backdrop: A U.S.-led anti-cartel coalition is also pressuring Mexico to tighten regional enforcement, raising the stakes for cross-border crime control.

Digital Payments Surge: Paraguay’s digital payments jumped 24% in the first four months of 2026, led by debit cards (+32%) as consumers lean on their own funds. Industrial Push: The country has started building its first pulp mill, a US$1.5B project in Concepción that’s positioned as the biggest private investment in Paraguay’s history. Construction Boom in Asunción: The municipality reports a sustained real-estate expansion, with record income from building approvals and new hubs along major corridors like Santa Teresa and Aviadores del Chaco. Energy & Reliability Watch: In Davao del Norte, consumers are pressing for stronger grid performance after a court order expanded Davao Light’s control—an example of how infrastructure rollouts can quickly turn into reliability debates. Culture & Craft: Paraguay’s ceramists are gearing up for a week of events (24–31 May), culminating in a fair in Areguá on 30–31 May.

Industrial Investment: Paraguay has started building its first pulp mill, a US$1.5 billion project in Paso Horqueta (Concepción) led by Paracel—positioned as the biggest private investment in the country and a major boost for the forestry-to-industry push. Digital Economy: Digital payments in Paraguay jumped 24% in the first four months of 2026, with debit cards driving the growth (+32%) as consumers lean on their own funds rather than credit. Urban Growth: Asunción’s real estate market is surging, with record municipal income from building approvals and new development hubs spreading along major corridors like Santa Teresa, Aviadores del Chaco, and Molas López. Energy & Infrastructure: A new mixed-use viaduct opened in Cambyretá, Itapúa, as part of EBY’s railway replacement plan—aimed at cutting travel times and improving local traffic flow. Trade/Logistics Watch: Brazil has shifted the Paraguay River waterway concession auction to the first half of 2027, citing more consultation time and ongoing legal and cross-border talks.

Pulp Mill Breakthrough: Paraguay has started construction on its first pulp mill in Paso Horqueta, Concepción, a historic US$1.5 billion investment led in part by Paracel—an industrial leap that will require major upgrades in power, water, and logistics. Digital Payments Surge: Paraguay’s digital payments jumped 24% in the first four months of 2026, with debit cards driving the growth (+32%), signaling more everyday spending shifting away from cash. Asunción Property Boom: The Municipality of Asunción reports a sustained real-estate expansion, with record income from building approvals and new development hubs along major corridors. Infrastructure Momentum: A new mixed-use viaduct opened in Cambyretá, Itapúa, as part of EBY’s railway replacement plan, improving access and easing traffic toward Encarnación. Food-Trade Pressure (Region): Egypt’s poultry import approval is sparking backlash from local farmers—an outside reminder that import policy can quickly reshape regional industry fortunes.

World Cup Diplomacy Watch: Australia’s PM Anthony Albanese says he’s “waiting and see” on a North America trip next month that could put him in the stands for the USA match in Seattle and open the door to meetings with US President Donald Trump and Canada’s Mark Carney. USMNT Roster Buzz: Leaks suggest Gio Reyna is in for the 2026 World Cup, while Diego Luna is out, as the US finalizes its squad under Mauricio Pochettino. Mercosur Trade Signal: Uruguay filled 63% of the EU’s zero-tariff Mercosur rice quota, a fast early test of the EU–Mercosur deal that entered into force on May 1. Paraguay Infrastructure & Jobs: A new mixed-use viaduct opened in Itapúa as part of EBY’s railway replacement plan, while a Brazilian sportswear manufacturer (Grupo Dass) confirmed a $40m Paraguay factory adding 600 jobs under the maquila regime. Energy & Governance: Brazil now targets a 2027 auction for the Paraguay River waterway concession, pushing the timeline and extending cross-border consultation work. Steel Snapshot: World crude steel output fell 1.9% in April year-on-year, with South America up slightly.

Paraguay River Deal Push: Brazil moved the Paraguay River waterway concession auction to the first half of 2027, aiming to publish the tender later this year while consultations and a cross-border governance draft with Paraguay and Bolivia are still in the works. Energy & Reliability: In the Philippines, consumers are pressing Davao Light to match its Davao del Norte expansion with better grid performance after court orders cleared the way for broader operational control. Manufacturing Jobs: A Brazilian sportswear supplier (Grupo Dass) is investing about US$40m in Paraguay to open a factory in Asunción’s Almasol industrial park, targeting 600 jobs under the maquila model. World Cup Noise: The USMNT’s World Cup build-up keeps spilling into business and culture, while ticket pricing controversies and fan access debates continue to dominate headlines. Regional Context: The week also shows how big infrastructure and trade deals across South America are getting slower, more political, and more scrutinized.

Bolivia Crisis Spillover: In La Paz, weeks of blocked highways have turned more volatile as protesters reportedly detonated small dynamite charges, stormed public buildings, and set up dozens of blockades—fuel and food shortages are hitting hospitals, which are running out of oxygen cylinders; the U.S. State Department has called it an “attempted coup,” while police have used tear gas. Paraguay Jobs & Industry: A Brazilian sportswear manufacturer, Grupo Dass, is opening a Paraguay plant at Parque Industrial Almasol, investing about US$40M and creating 600 jobs under the maquila regime. Trade & Market Signals: The EU is moving ahead with Mercosur-related trade shifts, while Paraguay’s name keeps showing up in regional deal talk—an echo of how South American access is being renegotiated. World Cup Pressure on Demand: With the USA set to open against Paraguay, travel and ticket chatter suggests demand may be softer than early hype, even as pricing remains a flashpoint.

World Cup pressure hits Paraguay-linked markets: As FIFA’s 2026 kickoff nears, the U.S. opener against Paraguay on June 12 is being framed as both a tourism test and a pricing flashpoint, with reports that some host-city hotel demand is softer than expected and that secondary ticket prices in places like the Bay Area have started to ease—while FIFA’s own pricing controversies keep the spotlight on affordability. Investment & governance: A fresh Paraguay-focused argument warns that openness must come with safeguards—starting with transparency of beneficial ownership—so infrastructure, energy, and digital deals don’t hollow out institutions. Trade signals for the region: Paraguay’s meat export push is getting attention abroad, with the Philippines floating a possible FTA after President Santiago Peña’s Manila visit. Tech infrastructure momentum: Separately, HIVE’s AI data-center buildout plans keep tying the region’s growth story to compute demand, including Paraguay-linked data center activity.

Paraná–Paraguay waterway deal under scrutiny: Argentina opened economic bids for a 25-year concession of the Paraná–Paraguay waterway, targeting up to ~$600m a year in toll revenues, but the Public Prosecutor’s Office warned of “serious and obvious irregularities,” with opposition pushing for a halt. AI infrastructure momentum: HIVE Digital shares jumped after it said it will buy Toronto land for a $58m, 320 MW AI “gigafactory” expected to host 100,000+ GPUs—part of a broader pivot from bitcoin mining toward data centers, including sites in Paraguay. World Cup commercial noise, not just football: FIFA’s pricing backlash continues as ticket costs and demand look uneven, while in California some Levi’s Stadium match tickets have reportedly fallen on the secondary market. Trade talks eye Paraguay: The Philippines signaled interest in a free trade deal with Paraguay after President Santiago Peña’s Manila visit, with meat exports (beef, pork, chicken) on the agenda.

World Cup Ticket Backlash: FIFA’s dynamic pricing is under fresh pressure as resale prices for some 2026 matches fall sharply, with even a San Francisco group game reportedly starting below $100—adding to the growing chorus that ticketing and hospitality were priced too high for demand. USMNT Build-Up: The U.S. men’s roster is set to be announced May 26 in New York, with a televised 26-man reveal and training camp plans already lined up ahead of tune-ups versus Senegal and Germany. Paraguay Spotlight: Paraguay is in the opening-match spotlight—U.S. vs. Paraguay is scheduled for June 12 in Inglewood—while Paraguay’s presence also shows up in broader World Cup media and streaming coverage. Climate Risk for Industry: A new WMO report flags intensifying heat, floods, and drought across Latin America and the Caribbean, warning that extreme weather is increasingly disrupting food and health systems. Tech Investment Signal: HIVE Digital’s 320 MW “AI gigafactory” plan in Canada keeps AI infrastructure in the headlines, reinforcing the region’s push toward large-scale compute capacity.

Mercosur Momentum: UK trade minister Chris Bryant says Britain is “fancying” a Mercosur deal, arguing the EU’s provisional Mercosur agreement is making European goods cheaper than British products in Brazil and Argentina—raising fresh pressure on Paraguay’s exporters as the bloc’s rules start to bite. Climate Risk: The WMO warns Latin America and the Caribbean are already living with stronger hurricanes, extreme heat, drought, floods, and rising seas, with preparation improving but public-health threats growing. World Cup Demand Signals: With under a month to go, some U.S. host cities are seeing softer hotel and ticket demand than expected, including drops on resale markets—while Paraguay’s match vs. the U.S. is being marketed heavily. AI Infrastructure Push: HIVE Digital’s BUZZ HPC plans a 320 MW “AI gigafactory” near Toronto, sending its shares up more than 35%, underscoring the region’s compute race. Regional Security Drills: Paraguay is listed among participants in Panama’s Panamax 2026 canal-defense exercise, a reminder that logistics corridors are becoming security priorities.

World Cup Ticket Pressure (US): In the Bay Area, World Cup resale prices are sliding fast ahead of June—tickets for Levi’s Stadium matches are down about 24% over the past month, with some group-stage seats now reported around $180, as demand looks softer than FIFA expected. World Cup Tech & Media (LATAM): Titan OS is partnering with Mercado Play to bring a bigger streaming library to smart TVs across Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay, while Tubi launches a free “FOX Hub” and will simulcast key matches including USMNT vs Paraguay. Paraguay in the Mix (Sports): Seattle’s schedule highlights the US vs Australia on June 19, with Paraguay also in the same group, keeping Paraguay’s World Cup spotlight growing. Bolivia Unrest (Regional Politics): Bolivia’s protests are still escalating around President Rodrigo Paz, with roadblocks, shortages, and international pressure—plus fresh talk of U.S.-backed moves against Evo Morales. EU Food Rules (Trade): EU officials call Brazil’s removal from its authorized list a “warning shot,” with changes starting September 3, 2026—important for Mercosur exporters including Paraguay.

AI Infrastructure Pivot: HIVE Digital’s BUZZ HPC is pushing a CAD 3.5b (about $2.55b) 320 MW “sovereign AI gigafactory” near Toronto, aiming to host 100,000+ GPUs and start operations in 2H 2027—sending shares up more than 35% at the open. Regional Trade & Ports: Wilson Sons plans to expand Brazil’s Rio Grande Container Terminal with a $220m investment, stretching the pier to 1,200m to handle larger ships and boost Southern Cone flows—explicitly citing rising transshipment from Uruguay, Argentina, and Paraguay. Climate Pressure on Industry: A new regional climate report warns extreme heat, floods, and drought are already disrupting food and water access across Latin America and the Caribbean, with Brazil and Paraguay among the hardest hit by record temperatures. World Cup Business Watch: Paraguay’s presence stays in the spotlight as Tubi’s free FIFA World Cup “FOX Hub” will simulcast the USMNT vs Paraguay match in 4K on June 12.

Bolivia Unrest: The U.S. State Department backed President Rodrigo Paz as Bolivia enters a third week of protests and road blockades that are driving shortages of food, medicine, and fuel, while regional governments including Paraguay signed a declaration rejecting moves to destabilize Bolivia’s democratic order. World Cup Business: FIFA’s World Cup ticket demand is wobbling fast—prices are now dropping below $100 on resale sites—while Tubi and Fox are pushing a free “FOX Hub” with 4K opening coverage and matches including Paraguay vs. the U.S. AI Infrastructure: Hive Digital says its BUZZ HPC unit is advancing a 320 MW “AI gigafactory” in Ontario, aiming to host 100,000+ GPUs. Defense Spending: SIPRI reports Brazil led South America’s defense spend in 2025, with Uruguay’s rise among the steepest. Paraguay Angle: Paraguay is named in the Bolivia diplomacy list and appears in the World Cup schedule as a featured match.

Paraguay’s economy stays on track: Paraguay’s Economic Activity Indicator points to 4.7% growth in Q1 2026 and 8.2% year-on-year, with the primary sector up 10.4% on a strong agricultural season. World Cup diplomacy and costs: The Israel embassy incentive push toward Jerusalem keeps Paraguay in the spotlight as one of the countries already represented there, while the broader World Cup build-up is still shaking markets—hotel demand looks weaker than expected in some host cities. Regional security drills: Paraguay is also named among partners for Panamax 2026 in Panama, a major canal-defense exercise bringing 1,500+ personnel. Food trade pressure: EU rules tightening antimicrobial controls are set to reshape Mercosur meat flows, with Paraguay and neighbors watching closely. Culture with industry links: INAP launched its second National Award for Cinematographic and Audiovisual Research, offering a ₲10 million prize to boost local film scholarship.

Bolivia Unrest Spillover: Bolivia deployed about 3,500 troops and police around La Paz to clear road blockades that have choked supplies to the capital for two weeks, after clashes left dozens detained and at least three deaths linked to disrupted access to medical care. Regional Security & Spending: SIPRI says South America’s military budgets kept rising—Brazil led in 2025 with a ~13% jump, while Uruguay posted one of the steepest relative increases. World Cup Business Shock: FIFA finally locked a China broadcast deal at about $60M (far below its earlier $300M target), while early booking data in North America suggests hotel demand is weaker than expected in several host cities. Paraguay Economy Watch: Paraguay’s Economic Activity Indicator points to strong momentum in Q1 2026, with growth around 4.7% and broad sector participation. Food Trade Compliance: EU rules tightening antimicrobial controls will affect Mercosur animal-product imports from September 3, 2026—an issue Paraguay exporters will be watching closely.